4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 42

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP