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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 63

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate ran ob at BUF 37 for 23 yards (50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP