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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NYJ 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP