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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.25 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP