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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 78

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model