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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model