4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYJ 37, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 89-J.Marshall to BUF 44 for 19 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 37, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model