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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 14

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 79-B.Qvale and 64-C.Watts reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell up the middle to BUF 14 for no gain (52-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model