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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

ARI
67.3%
LA
32.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.264 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): -0.342 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.004 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
LA 18
Projected margin: ARI by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

D.J. Humphries T Out Concussion
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Ankle
John Brown WR Questionable Illness
Marcus Cooper CB Questionable Back
Sio Moore LB Questionable Ankle

LA

Kenny Britt WR Doubtful Shoulder
Rob Havenstein T Doubtful Ankle
Lamarcus Joyner CB Doubtful Ankle
Mike Thomas WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 44
–
LA 6

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:39 FG ARI (10:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 12:30 FG ARI (12:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 07:47 TD ARI (7:47) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 16-J.Ross for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – LA 0
  • Q2 02:39 FG LA (2:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:53 FG LA (:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 13 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 16 – LA 6
  • Q3 13:20 TD ARI (13:20) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 85-D.Fells for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 22 – LA 6
  • Q3 08:22 TD ARI (8:22) 61-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 33-K.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 29 – LA 6
  • Q4 11:40 TD ARI (11:40) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 36 – LA 6
  • Q4 08:15 TD ARI (8:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short right intended for 10-P.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Bethel at ARI 34. 28-J.Bethel for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 43 – LA 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (10:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to ARI 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 34 for 2 yards (58-C.Littleton). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 32.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:07) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to LA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 25. 11-T.Austin to LA 25 for no gain (33-K.Williams).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ARI 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:36) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 26 for 18 yards (46-A.Brewer).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (12:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ARI 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (2:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:06) 6-M.Wile punt is BLOCKED by 34-C.Reynolds, Center-46-A.Brewer, recovered by ARI-33-K.Williams at ARI 19. 33-K.Williams to ARI 19 for no gain (24-B.Countess).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 65%

    (9:14) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 14-J.Nelson ran ob at LA 4 for 32 yards. Los Angeles challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (6:01) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 34-C.Reynolds pushed ob at LA 32 for 4 yards (25-C.Bryant).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (3:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-J.Ross.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (14:17) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 22 for no gain.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 30%

    (4:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass incomplete short left to 83-B.Quick (41-M.Cooper).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%

    (1:54) 5-D.Stanton pass deep right intended for 10-B.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-T.McDonald at LA 14. 25-T.McDonald to LA 14 for no gain (10-B.Golden).