Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to LA 25, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 25. 11-T.Austin to LA 25 for no gain (33-K.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.53 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model