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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 44 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 5-D.Stanton pass deep right intended for 10-B.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-T.McDonald at LA 14. 25-T.McDonald to LA 14 for no gain (10-B.Golden).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.91 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP