4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 6-M.Wile punt is BLOCKED by 34-C.Reynolds, Center-46-A.Brewer, recovered by ARI-33-K.Williams at ARI 19. 33-K.Williams to ARI 19 for no gain (24-B.Countess).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP