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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 30 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 22 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model