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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model