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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:53) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.22 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model