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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Arizona Cardinals 30

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short left to 34-C.Reynolds pushed ob at LA 32 for 4 yards (25-C.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model