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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model