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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model