Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 62

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(3:36) 6-M.Wile punts 54 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 26 for 18 yards (46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model