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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

JAX
43.2%
HOU
56.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to JAX: Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.098 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.099 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

JAX

Allen Hurns WR Out Hamstring
Chris Reed G Out Toe
Denard Robinson RB Out Ankle
Shane Wynn WR Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Concussion
C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Out Concussion
Don Jones S Out Illness
John Simon LB Out Chest
Whitney Mercilus LB Questionable Back
Tyler Ervin RB Questionable Ribs
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
HOU 21

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:41 FG JAX (13:41) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:21 FG JAX (11:21) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 08:39 TD JAX (8:39) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:49 SAF HOU (1:49) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to JAX 49, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at JAX 41 for 8 yards (30-C.Grant). PENALTY on JAX-87-N.Sterling, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. JAX 13 – HOU 2
  • Q2 00:53 FG HOU (:53) 8-N.Novak 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 13 – HOU 5
  • Q3 07:07 FG HOU (7:07) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 13 – HOU 8
  • Q3 07:02 TD JAX 8-N.Novak kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to JAX 0. 11-M.Lee for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-11-M.Lee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. JAX 19 – HOU 8
  • Q3 00:15 FG HOU (:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 20 – HOU 11
  • Q4 07:57 FG HOU (7:57) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. JAX 20 – HOU 14
  • Q4 02:54 TD HOU (2:54) 26-L.Miller left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:28) 3-B.Nortman punts 64 yards to HOU 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 33 for 9 yards (30-C.Grant).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%

    (7:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:47) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to HOU 29, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller MUFFS catch, recovered by HOU-82-W.Williams at HOU 24. 82-W.Williams to HOU 18 for -6 yards (30-C.Grant).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to JAX 36 for 10 yards (50-A.Dent).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (13:41) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 73%

    (11:21) 2-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage pass incomplete short right to 10-D.Hopkins (20-J.Ramsey).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

    (:53) 8-N.Novak 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (7:07) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to JAX 10 for -1 yards (33-A.Hunt).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:36) 3-B.Nortman punts 49 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 85%

    (:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:14) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 32 for 25 yards (30-C.Grant).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (7:57) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:57) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 48 for 4 yards (17-A.Benn).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 15 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep middle to 15-A.Robinson [94-A.Smith].

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 57%

    (1:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 32 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-E.Pleasant.