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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 22

Houston Texans 2 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:53) 8-N.Novak 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.33 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP