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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-B.Walters to JAX 36 for 10 yards (50-A.Dent).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP