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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 25
Houston Texans 8 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20
What Actually Happened
(:15) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
The Three Options
GO
+1.59 EP
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.47 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
KICK
+1.45 EP
What Happened
- 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
