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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.09 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP