Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 21

(1:58) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep middle to 15-A.Robinson [94-A.Smith].

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.91 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP