Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to HOU 29, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller MUFFS catch, recovered by HOU-82-W.Williams at HOU 24. 82-W.Williams to HOU 18 for -6 yards (30-C.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.28 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model