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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 27

Houston Texans 5 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model