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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 20 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to HOU 44, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 48 for 4 yards (17-A.Benn).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model