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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 2-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP