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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 39

Houston Texans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 32 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-E.Pleasant.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP