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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NYG
50.6%
CLE
49.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.212 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.029 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

Brett Jones C Out Calf
Marshall Newhouse T Out Knee
Justin Pugh G Out Knee
Orleans Darkwa RB Questionable lower leg
Adam Gettis G Questionable Calf
Roger Lewis WR Questionable Concussion
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Knee

CLE

Cody Kessler QB Out Concussion
Ed Reynolds S Questionable Knee
Tramon Williams CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:08 TD NYG (7:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 17-D.Harris for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 01:46 FG CLE (1:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYG 7 – CLE 3
  • Q2 01:22 TD NYG (1:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG CLE (:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. NYG 14 – CLE 6
  • Q4 11:08 TD NYG (11:08) 13-J.McCown sacked at CLE 43 for -7 yards (95-J.Hankins). FUMBLES (95-J.Hankins) [95-J.Hankins], RECOVERED by NYG-90-J.Pierre-Paul at CLE 43. 90-J.Pierre-Paul for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CLE 6
  • Q4 08:23 TD CLE (8:23) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass deep left to 19-C.Coleman for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CLE 12
  • Q4 05:15 TD NYG (5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:50) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:09) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYG 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to CLE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:38) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at NYG 30 for 10 yards (58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on NYG-43-B.Rainey, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 29%

    (12:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CLE 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NYG 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey to 50 for 7 yards (80-R.Louis).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 18 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 12 for -1 yards (93-B.Goodson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYG 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 38, RECOVERED by CLE-54-D.Alexander at NYG 32. 54-D.Alexander to NYG 30 for 2 yards.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 88%

    (4:06) 34-I.Crowell right guard to NYG 19 for 2 yards (91-K.Sheppard).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 21 for 12 yards (80-R.Louis; 53-J.Schobert).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 12 for -3 yards (17-D.Harris; 93-B.Goodson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 46 for 26 yards (30-D.Kindred). PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. Penalty on NYG-28-P.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to CLE 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 37 for 9 yards (43-B.Rainey; 94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:56) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to CLE 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NYG 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-94-M.Herzlich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 40.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 27%

    (13:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CLE 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. NYG-94-M.Herzlich was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 47%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Coleman (20-J.Jenkins).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 19%

    (1:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.