Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 95

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(14:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to NYG 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-94-M.Herzlich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 40.

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.78 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 95, worth -5.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model