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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 73

New York Giants 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(8:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 12 for -3 yards (17-D.Harris; 93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model