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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:56) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NYG 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP