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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 13 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Coleman (20-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.76 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.44 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model