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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 52

New York Giants 27 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP