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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 56

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to CLE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model