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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 48

New York Giants 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CLE 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. NYG-94-M.Herzlich was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model