Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at NYG 30 for 10 yards (58-C.Kirksey). PENALTY on NYG-43-B.Rainey, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model