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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 64

New York Giants 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to CLE 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP