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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 2

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP