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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

PIT
54.1%
CLE
45.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.180 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Wind 27 mph
  • PIT defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CLE on 3 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

PIT 22
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PIT

Cameron Heyward DE Out Pectoral
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Foot
Shamarko Thomas S Out Groin
Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder
DeAngelo Williams RB Out Knee
Jordan Dangerfield S Questionable Groin
Xavier Grimble TE Questionable Quadricep

CLE

Tramon Williams CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
CLE 9

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:32 FG PIT (2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 04:46 FG PIT (4:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:00 TD PIT (:00) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – CLE 0
  • Q3 08:05 FG CLE (8:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PIT 14 – CLE 3
  • Q3 00:04 FG PIT (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – CLE 3
  • Q4 09:50 TD CLE (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – CLE 9
  • Q4 03:44 TD PIT (3:44) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown sacked at CLE 2 for -11 yards (50-R.Shazier). FUMBLES (50-R.Shazier) [50-R.Shazier], RECOVERED by PIT-79-J.Hargrave at CLE 0. TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – CLE 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (14:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-M.Burley.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 58%

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to CLE 28 for 4 yards (23-J.Haden; 51-J.Collins).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (4:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 46 for 14 yards (14-S.Coates).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 72%

    (10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep left to 11-T.Pryor Sr. pushed ob at PIT 1 for 26 yards (31-R.Cockrell).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (8:05) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (13:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to PIT 34 for 9 yards (94-L.Timmons).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 38 for 18 yards (14-S.Coates).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 23 for no gain (56-A.Chickillo; 21-R.Golden). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 11-T.Pryor Sr. to CLE 35 for 8 yards (94-L.Timmons).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 66%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 34-I.Crowell right guard to PIT 27 for 2 yards (50-R.Shazier; 90-R.Mathews).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to PIT 14 for 8 yards (95-J.Jones).