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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model