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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-26-M.Burley.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model