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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 82-G.Barnidge to PIT 34 for 9 yards (94-L.Timmons).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model