Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CLE 23, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 23 for no gain (56-A.Chickillo; 21-R.Golden). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.78 EP
51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model