Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cleveland Browns 9

(8:19) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to CLE 20, Center-60-G.Warren. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 38 for 18 yards (14-S.Coates).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model