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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP