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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to CLE 28 for 4 yards (23-J.Haden; 51-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.04 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model