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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model